The climate risk analysis in Kliva helps property owners and investors understand how climate change may affect a property up to the year 2100. The analysis follows international standards and is based on data from Swedish public authorities.
This article goes through what lies behind the assessments — method, scenarios, risk levels and data sources. Would you rather know how to start an analysis, adjust risk levels, add proposed measures and export the report? You will find that in the introduction to Climate Risk Analysis.
How the analysis works
Method: the IPCC AR6 framework
The risk assessment is based on the IPCC AR6 framework (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Sixth Assessment Report):
Risk = Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability
Component | Description | Data source |
Hazard | Climate-related events that may cause damage: flooding, heatwave, storm, erosion | SMHI climate scenarios, IPCC AR6 projections |
Exposure | The property's geographical exposure to climate risks | MSB cloudburst mapping, SMHI coastal flooding data, topographic analysis |
Vulnerability | The property's sensitivity and capacity to adapt | Year of construction (as a proxy). Detailed drainage and basement data is not available. |
Climate scenarios
The analysis uses the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP):
RCP 4.5 – Moderate scenario with substantial emission reductions
RCP 8.5 – High scenario without major climate action ("business as usual")
Risks are assessed for three time periods:
2011–2040 – Near future
2041–2070 – Medium term
2071–2100 – Long term
Risk levels
Level | Description |
No risk | Negligible impact |
Low risk | Limited impact |
Medium risk | Moderate impact |
High risk | Significant impact |
Categories
Climate risks are analysed within four main categories according to the EU taxonomy:
Temperature-related – Heatwave, cold wave, wildfire, permafrost
Wind-related – Storm, changing wind patterns
Water-related – Flooding, drought, sea level rise, heavy precipitation
Solid mass-related – Erosion, landslide, subsidence
Data sources
Primary data sources
MSB – the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (flood mapping, cloudburst maps)
SMHI – the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (climate scenarios, coastal flooding)
Lantmäteriet – the Swedish national land survey (topographic data and elevation models)
SGU – the Geological Survey of Sweden (soil types, erosion risk)
Kliva/Risk & Environment – fire risk assessment for forest and open land
International references
IPCC AR6 – Working Group II, Chapter 13 (Europe)
The EU taxonomy – Appendix A climate risk requirements (EU 2021/2139)
Pre-calculated data
Some risks are based on pre-calculated data that already includes climate scenarios:
Coastal flooding | RCP 4.5 & 8.5 / Year 2100 |
Flooding (cloudburst/pluvial) | RCP 8.5 / 100-year rainfall / Year 2100 |
Important, about limitations: In the absence of property-specific data (such as drainage, basements or adaptation measures), conservative assumptions are made. Property owners are recommended to carry out a detailed vulnerability analysis for properties with elevated risk.
Recommended measures
For each identified risk, concrete measures are proposed, adapted to the risk level. The recommendations focus on:
Property-specific measures that can be carried out by the property owner
Prioritisation based on cost versus risk reduction
Time horizon for implementation
Quality assurance
To ensure consistent and reproducible assessments:
The same property with the same input data always gives the same risk level
All assessments are based on verifiable data sources
No estimates or extrapolated statistics without a source reference
A conservative approach where there is uncertainty – rather underestimate than overestimate risk
Read More
Would you like to continue learning? Here you will find additional articles to guide you further:
Activate the analysis via Modules.
Introduction to the Pipeline system.